The Packaging Challenge: Why Good Intentions Aren’t Enough

Europe’s Circular Economy Action Plan sets out ambitious goals: reducing waste, increasing recycling and creating packaging that works within planetary boundaries. However, despite the urgency, Europe’s circular economy is stuck in reverse. Since 2018, the share of recycled materials in global consumption has actually dropped from 9.1% to 6.9%. Although regulation is becoming stricter, implementation is lagging behind. Innovations emerge, but scaling up remains slow. And consumers? Many still struggle to tell what is recyclable, reusable, or just wishful thinking.

At the co-do lab, we believe this gap between vision and reality isn’t inevitable—it’s a design challenge. Together with the Forum Ökologisch Verpacken (FÖV) and the Collaborating Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP), we dove deep into the future of packaging. The result? Four bold scenarios that show where we’re headed—and how we can steer the ship before it’s too late.

Using scenario planning, expert insights, and participatory workshops, we developed four plausible futures. These aren’t predictions – rather, they clarify the choices we have: Do we want a world where packaging waste disappears into clever, circular systems? Or one where half-hearted rules and lazy innovation leave us drowning in trash?

We brought together policymakers, businesses, scientists, and activists to imagine what 2030 could look like. We have determined that strict enforcement of regulations on the one hand and the willingness of the economy to innovate on the other will be key parameters for future development – and, of course, these two factors also influence each other. So let us take a look at what a future might look like in which these two core factors take on different forms:

Four Futures for Packaging in 2030

1. The Great Stagnation

A future where inertia wins.

– Weak policies, limited incentives, and short-term thinking keep the industry on autopilot.

– Recycling tech and materials innovation stall, while landfills and incinerators stay busy.

– Consumers disengage, frustrated by lack of transparency and convenience.

– Europe loses ground to regions with faster innovation and stronger policies.

The warning: Without urgent action, 2030 could look eerily like today—just with more waste.

2. Pioneers Lead, Laggards Lag

A future where a few drive change—but most wait to be forced.

– A handful of front-runner brands invest in reusable systems, smart materials, and closed-loop recycling, gaining market share and loyalty.

– Most companies stick to the status quo, waiting for regulation (or consumer pressure) to catch up.

– Consumers reward innovators, but without clear standards, greenwashing thrives.

– Global competition intensifies—European pioneers thrive, while latecomers struggle to keep up.

The question: Can market leaders alone drag the entire industry forward—or will fragmentation hold everyone back?

3. Halfway There: Compliance Without Momentum

A future where regulations exist—but fall short of real change.

– Laws are strict on paper, but their impact is diluted by patchy enforcement and bureaucratic hurdles.

– Companies meet the minimum requirements, but innovation stagnates. Recycling rates increase slowly, but breakthroughs remain rare.

– Consumers want to make better choices, but confusing systems and greenwashing undermine trust.

– Secondary materials remain scarce and expensive, which keeps demand for raw materials high.

The risk? A false sense of progress—where everyone looks sustainable, but the system stays linear.

4. Circular Transformation Takes Flight

A future where policy, innovation, and collaboration align.

– Strong, harmonized EU regulations set clear standards for recyclability, reused materials, and waste reduction—and member states actually enforce them.

– AI and automation optimize sorting and recycling, while new and better materials enter the mainstream.

– Businesses increasingly compete to also make the most sustainable packaging, not just the cheapest.

– Consumers are supported with smart labeling, deposit systems, and incentives that make circular products and packaging the easy choice.

The catch? This future demands bold harmonized regulation and leadership, investment in infrastructure, and a willingness to break from “business as usual.”

From Scenarios to Strategy: How to Build the Future We Want

So, which future do we choose? The answer lies in the decisions we make today. And here’s the good news: The best future is still on the table.

From our stakeholder workshops, we pulled out four key moves to make the circular economy real:

1: Break Down Silos

– Collaboration across the value chain—from material suppliers to retailers to recyclers—is non-negotiable.

– Transparency tools (like Digital Product Passports) can align goals and track progress.

2: Design Smarter Policies

– Regulations must be ambitious and practical—co-created with industry to ensure they work in the real world.

– Incentives (not just penalties) can drive innovation and investment.

3: Invest in What Works

– Scale proven technologies (chemical recycling, AI sorting, reusable systems) with public-private funding.

– Support SMEs—not just giants—to ensure no one gets left behind.

4: Put Retail in the Driver’s Seat

– Retailers shape consumer choices. If they demand circular packaging, the market will follow.

– Consumer education must be clear, engaging, and actionable—no more guesswork at the bin.

Why This Matters for Your Organization

Whether you’re a brand, a policymaker, or just someone who’s sick of sorting trash, this is your wake-up call. The future of packaging isn’t some distant dream – it’s being built right now.

At the co-do lab, we specialize in turning foresight into action. Our work with FÖV and CSCP shows how scenario planning, stakeholder engagement, and co-creative workshops can clarify complex challenges and reveal blind spots. How they can align diverse stakeholders around shared goals and accelerate innovation by focusing on what actually works.

The best future isn’t inevitable—it’s a choice. And it starts with asking: What role will you play?

Ready to shape the future? Explore our Futures Visioning.

P.S. Dive deeper into the findings—read the full report here—and see how these scenarios could reshape your strategy.

Head, heart and hand …

Hello Transformation is an outdoor programme that blends experiential learning, systems thinking and reflective practice. It is full of real conversations and touching moments beyond PowerPoint presentations. Participants explore how sustainable transformation can be achieved through everyday decisions, team routines and organisational strategy. We create moments that shift perspectives and inspire action – because people don’t just learn about change; they practise doing it.

… brought to the team level

Not every team can step away for multiple days. However, especially teams can benefit from energising, hands-on formats that:

Build shared language & direction in a single day

Connect strategy to practice through concrete activities

Strengthen team culture with experiences you’ll remember (and reuse)

What the day can look like

The original format provides us with a full basket of opportunities to do, learn and experience. Your team day can be based on a selection of those tailored to your team’s current needs – and also enriched with what is strategically or operationally important to date. A typical flow might include:

1. Arrival & grounding in nature
Arrive in a green setting, shift gear, and set personal intentions.

2. Circularity in action
Short impulses and walk-and-talks on circular economy – from materials to everyday choices. Hands-on elements make systems visible and actionable.

3. Vertical farming encounter
Step into a repurposed container and experience urban food production up close. Taste, question, connect ideas to your context.

4. Micro-gardening: plant a seed
A small ritual with a big meaning: sowing something to nurture beyond the day – back at the office or at home.

5. Co-creation kitchen
Cook together using seasonal ingredients right from the field; translate recipes into “ingredients for transformation”. It’s playful, practical, and deeply social.

6. Campfire conversations
Guided prompts spark honest exchanges about purpose, trade-offs, and next steps. Simple, human, memorable.

7. From insight to action
Close with a crisp “first 3 moves” plan: what we start, stop, and share tomorrow.

We couldn’t do all of that with the GS1 Germany team, as they also had a one-hour bus tour to and from Cologne, followed by an evening party at their offices. This made us think of alternative formats. We came up with a personal transformation exercise that started with the seat neighbour on the bus. On the team’s way back to Cologne in the afternoon, we held a fun and inspiring quiz to help consolidate some of the learning and open up new perspectives.

Voices from the GS1 SustainDay

We are grateful that GS1 Germany was brave enough to pilot this approach with us and for the contributing participants that also provided us with feedback:

“We took the fast lane through Hello Transformation and still went deep: we laughed, harvested, cooked, and learned – sustainably, holistically, innovatively. The vertical farm was a highlight.”

“An inspiring atmosphere with lots of practical ideas to take back – circular economy made tangible.”

“From building with clay to rethinking consumption, I left with doable steps for my own life. And yes, the peas we picked for lunch were amazing.”

“Sitting on hay bales, sowing Swiss chard, and shifting focus to ‘living better’ – plus seriously delicious food. I’ll be back.”

“Even as someone seasoned in the topic, being outside changed the conversation. Planting a seed became a symbol: we’re taking this energy back to the office – greening our workspace to keep it alive.”

What teams take away

Shared clarity on what sustainability means for your work

Practical tools & habits you can implement immediately

Renewed motivation, because doing and being firmly connected beats debating

A story to keep: photos, artifacts, and a small living reminder (yes, that seed)

So, when to say “Hello Transformation”?

Hello Transformation fits different needs depending on its format. The four-day journey is ideal when a future transformation leader, a team or an organisation wants to dive deeply into transformation, building shared understanding, personal growth, and concrete roadmaps. A one- or two-day format is perfect for moments when inspiration, reconnection, and a practical push are needed quickly. Whether you are launching a new initiative, seeking to re-energise existing efforts, or simply wanting to reconnect as a team, Hello Transformation provides the grounding, perspective, and spark to make change possible.

Ready to host your own?

We’ll co-design the experience around your goals, team size, and context – on our nature campus at Gut Einern (Wuppertal) or at a suitable partner location. You bring your curiosity; we’ll bring the space, the methods, and the spark.

Let’s make transformation something your team can feel and do.

Get in touch: hello@co-do-lab.org | Learn more: co-do-lab.org/hello-transformation

Photo by (c) Juliane Herrmann