New Futures’ study: In collaboration with Forum Ökologisch Verpacken (FÖV) we created four plausible scenarios for the future of sustainable packaging. Find out how strategic foresight can help transforming ambition into action.

 

The Packaging Challenge: Why Good Intentions Aren’t Enough

Europe’s Circular Economy Action Plan sets out ambitious goals: reducing waste, increasing recycling and creating packaging that works within planetary boundaries. However, despite the urgency, Europe’s circular economy is stuck in reverse. Since 2018, the share of recycled materials in global consumption has actually dropped from 9.1% to 6.9%. Although regulation is becoming stricter, implementation is lagging behind. Innovations emerge, but scaling up remains slow. And consumers? Many still struggle to tell what is recyclable, reusable, or just wishful thinking.

At the co-do lab, we believe this gap between vision and reality isn’t inevitable—it’s a design challenge. Together with the Forum Ökologisch Verpacken (FÖV) and the Collaborating Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP), we dove deep into the future of packaging. The result? Four bold scenarios that show where we’re headed—and how we can steer the ship before it’s too late.

Using scenario planning, expert insights, and participatory workshops, we developed four plausible futures. These aren’t predictions – rather, they clarify the choices we have: Do we want a world where packaging waste disappears into clever, circular systems? Or one where half-hearted rules and lazy innovation leave us drowning in trash?

We brought together policymakers, businesses, scientists, and activists to imagine what 2030 could look like. We have determined that strict enforcement of regulations on the one hand and the willingness of the economy to innovate on the other will be key parameters for future development – and, of course, these two factors also influence each other. So let us take a look at what a future might look like in which these two core factors take on different forms:

Four Futures for Packaging in 2030

1. The Great Stagnation

A future where inertia wins.

– Weak policies, limited incentives, and short-term thinking keep the industry on autopilot.

– Recycling tech and materials innovation stall, while landfills and incinerators stay busy.

– Consumers disengage, frustrated by lack of transparency and convenience.

– Europe loses ground to regions with faster innovation and stronger policies.

The warning: Without urgent action, 2030 could look eerily like today—just with more waste.

2. Pioneers Lead, Laggards Lag

A future where a few drive change—but most wait to be forced.

– A handful of front-runner brands invest in reusable systems, smart materials, and closed-loop recycling, gaining market share and loyalty.

– Most companies stick to the status quo, waiting for regulation (or consumer pressure) to catch up.

– Consumers reward innovators, but without clear standards, greenwashing thrives.

– Global competition intensifies—European pioneers thrive, while latecomers struggle to keep up.

The question: Can market leaders alone drag the entire industry forward—or will fragmentation hold everyone back?

3. Halfway There: Compliance Without Momentum

A future where regulations exist—but fall short of real change.

– Laws are strict on paper, but their impact is diluted by patchy enforcement and bureaucratic hurdles.

– Companies meet the minimum requirements, but innovation stagnates. Recycling rates increase slowly, but breakthroughs remain rare.

– Consumers want to make better choices, but confusing systems and greenwashing undermine trust.

– Secondary materials remain scarce and expensive, which keeps demand for raw materials high.

The risk? A false sense of progress—where everyone looks sustainable, but the system stays linear.

4. Circular Transformation Takes Flight

A future where policy, innovation, and collaboration align.

– Strong, harmonized EU regulations set clear standards for recyclability, reused materials, and waste reduction—and member states actually enforce them.

– AI and automation optimize sorting and recycling, while new and better materials enter the mainstream.

– Businesses increasingly compete to also make the most sustainable packaging, not just the cheapest.

– Consumers are supported with smart labeling, deposit systems, and incentives that make circular products and packaging the easy choice.

The catch? This future demands bold harmonized regulation and leadership, investment in infrastructure, and a willingness to break from “business as usual.”

From Scenarios to Strategy: How to Build the Future We Want

So, which future do we choose? The answer lies in the decisions we make today. And here’s the good news: The best future is still on the table.

From our stakeholder workshops, we pulled out four key moves to make the circular economy real:

1: Break Down Silos

– Collaboration across the value chain—from material suppliers to retailers to recyclers—is non-negotiable.

– Transparency tools (like Digital Product Passports) can align goals and track progress.

2: Design Smarter Policies

– Regulations must be ambitious and practical—co-created with industry to ensure they work in the real world.

– Incentives (not just penalties) can drive innovation and investment.

3: Invest in What Works

– Scale proven technologies (chemical recycling, AI sorting, reusable systems) with public-private funding.

– Support SMEs—not just giants—to ensure no one gets left behind.

4: Put Retail in the Driver’s Seat

– Retailers shape consumer choices. If they demand circular packaging, the market will follow.

– Consumer education must be clear, engaging, and actionable—no more guesswork at the bin.

Why This Matters for Your Organization

Whether you’re a brand, a policymaker, or just someone who’s sick of sorting trash, this is your wake-up call. The future of packaging isn’t some distant dream – it’s being built right now.

At the co-do lab, we specialize in turning foresight into action. Our work with FÖV and CSCP shows how scenario planning, stakeholder engagement, and co-creative workshops can clarify complex challenges and reveal blind spots. How they can align diverse stakeholders around shared goals and accelerate innovation by focusing on what actually works.

The best future isn’t inevitable—it’s a choice. And it starts with asking: What role will you play?

Ready to shape the future? Explore our Futures Visioning.

P.S. Dive deeper into the findings—read the full report here—and see how these scenarios could reshape your strategy.